Economic Cycle
Intelligence
Your real-time guide to the U.S. economy — what's happening right now, what it means for your money, and how everyday families can invest with confidence.
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The economy moves in predictable cycles — just like seasons. When you know which "season" we're in, you can make smarter decisions about your Roth IRA, 401(k), or savings. Scroll down to see exactly where we are right now, what the data says, and what it means for you — in plain English.
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Cycle Stage
Stage 3
Late Expansion
Recession Risk
Elevated
Yield curve signals caution
Fed Funds Rate
5.33%
↓ Falling
Unemployment
4.1%
→ Stable
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Subscribers see the exact cycle stage, recession risk level, live Fed data, and which sectors to watch — explained in plain English.
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Current Cycle Stage
Know exactly which of the 6 stages the economy is in — updated every hour.
Recession Risk Meter
Live color-coded risk level based on yield curve, unemployment & Fed data.
Sector Signals
Which ETFs & sectors are positioned to outperform right now — and why.
6-Stage Business Cycle
The economy always moves through these 6 stages. Click any stage to understand what happens to jobs, prices, stocks, and bonds during that period.
Business Cycle Stages
Click a stage to explore
Stage 1: Early Recovery
ExpansionEconomy begins recovering from recession. Interest rates are low, credit is easing, and consumer confidence starts to improve.
Bonds bottom — yields start rising as traders expect growth
Stocks bottom — earliest movers begin buying equities
GDP
Rising from trough
Inflation
Low / Stable
Rates
Low / Falling
Employment
Improving slowly
Best Performing Sectors
Bonds Lead Stocks — Conventional Wisdom
Timeless principles, applied to today's market conditions
Rules That Apply To Current Conditions
Educational Note: These are widely cited principles from publicly available financial research. 3LC L.L.C. is not a registered investment advisor. This content is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
What Changed
What Changed
Comparing latest vs. previous cached snapshot · Last update: 8/16/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Recession Probability
0.24%
No change
Cycle Stage Changed!
Moved from Stage () → Stage 4 (Late Expansion / Plateau — Early Easing Watch)
Historical Trends
Historical Trends
5-year FRED data · updated hourly
Cache last updated: 8/16/2026, 1:30:00 PM · Source: FRED (Federal Reserve)
Bonds & Stocks
Bond & Stock Cycle Relationship
Bonds lead stocks — bottoming and peaking before equities. Hover any point to learn why.
Hover anywhere on the graph — each point reveals what's happening in the economy at that stage and what it means for you.
Current Cycle: How Every Sector Relates to Bonds Right Now
When bonds move, every sector in the stock market feels it differently. Below is how today's bond market conditions affect each major sector — with cited sources so you can verify everything yourself. This is education, not advice.
3LC L.L.C. Educational Disclaimer: All analysis is sourced from publicly available research, cited above. 3LC L.L.C. is not a registered investment advisor or fiduciary. This content is for educational and informational purposes only. Always conduct your own due diligence. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Economic Indicators Over Time
Toggle indicators to track how economic conditions evolve with cycle stages.
- CPI YoY (%)
- Unemployment (%)
- Fed Funds Rate (%)
Market Intelligence
Market Intelligence
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