The Business Cycle
The cycle stages are constant — but today's market conditions are always changing. That's what makes the same stage different every time. Explore Stage 1 with live intelligence.
Where Are We In The Cycle?
Based on Fed funds rate, treasury yields, CPI, unemployment, and GDP data. Click any stage to explore it.
Stage 1: Early Recovery
ExpansionEconomy begins recovering from recession. Interest rates are low, credit is easing, and consumer confidence starts to improve.
Bonds bottom — yields start rising as traders expect growth
Stocks bottom — earliest movers begin buying equities
GDP
Rising from trough
Inflation
Low / Stable
Rates
Low / Falling
Employment
Improving slowly
Best Performing Sectors
The Constant & The Variable
Why the same cycle stage is never exactly the same twice.
📐 The Constant — Stage Patterns
During expansion, GDP rises, unemployment falls, and corporate earnings grow. Consumer and business confidence drives spending. This pattern has repeated in every expansion since 1950 — these correlations don't change.
🌊 The Variable — Today's Conditions
But how each stage plays out depends on today's Fed policy, geopolitics, inflation dynamics, and global capital flows. The pattern is the same — the surrounding conditions are different every single day. That's your edge.